I had an early start today and was only 10 minutes later than planned. I started at 7.10am and finished at 7.40am for +8 pips off one buy trade.
However, this trade was not as good as it sounds. Again, I’m not going to play this down too much as it did produce +8 pips. But the question is still, would I have GOWID if I needed to? The issue with today is that it was a very risky trade. The spread was 4 pips from the time I sat down to trade and only reduced to 3 pips after I had entered the trade. The worrying aspect is that from the point I entered the trade I was between -5 pips and -6 pips including the spread so really speaking I should have GOWID then as I was not 100% sure the trade would go positive straight away, which it didn’t, and acceptable losses on a trade is between -2 or -3 pips maximum. But I waited for nearly 4½ minutes before the Cable and the Euro shot up and I GOWID for the +8 pips.
It was a strange day though. As seen on the charts all three candles were quite large and green, so where was the correlation one might ask. The truth is there was some correlation, but not much. I noticed on two occasions, once at the beginning and more prominently towards the end of my session, that when the Swissy was moving up, so did the Euro and Cable – with momentum as well – so this means that there wasn’t any visible correlation and in those situations trading is risky. It’s clear that my trade today was only on the back of momentum, but the horrifying aspect of today, is that in the same fashion that the Cable (and Euro) shot up to give me my pips, the reverse could have happened and even if I had GOWID, the loss would have been high considering I was holding between -5 and -6 pips for over 4 minutes before it shot up to go positive.
Between the duration of today’s trade and the behaviour of the candles, the trade as I said was very risky and I was lucky to have ended up with positive pips – I have to learn to avoid trades such as today’s however tempting it might be.
I’m not going to trade anymore this week as my target of 10 pips per week has been achieved and perhaps I do need some time off from trading now until Monday. I may have really high expectations for my trading, and some may argue that I did well today – but my gut feeling is that I haven’t. I did some calculations yesterday to determine when I would be at the correct pip value of £40 if I followed my rule of doubling the pip value (which is currently at 5p) every week but only if I successfully complete each full week of trading within the rules and finishing on positive pips for the whole week – it worked out that I would be at the £40 level in 11 weeks – that’s my target. This week does not qualify, so I will be on 5p for another week. The approach I will be attempting next week is one of patience and the one daily goal of finishing each session feeling good in that I followed all the rules and if that means that I do not enter a single trade all week, so be it. I have also just put in a reminder to read this blog entry again before sitting down for my session on Monday to remind myself of these goals for the week.
So to finish off a week in the usual fashion, the round up;
Mon +4 pips
Tues +9 pips
Wed +3 pips
Thurs +8 pips
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