Tuesday 2 November 2010

could have been a close call

Right now I am simply relieved that I finished today positive.


There hasn’t been a great amount of movement since I finished trading yesterday. The starting price of the Cable when I sat down today was 1.6075. And my gut feeling was that today was going to be a long session based on the sizes of the candles over the last few hours.

There was some anxiety in me this morning – you know, I have been enjoying a bit of a positive streak, is it going to end today kind of thing. I re-reminded myself about GOWID from last night – I think mentioning it in the blog yesterday helped. And I was conscious about the length of my trading windows. But, as per the norm, I put it behind me as best as I could and settled down to trade.

I set up my charts in the usual fashion, during which time the Cable had dropped around 10 pips. I continued to watch as the Swissy climbed slowly pip by pip around 8 pips, the Euro was fluctuating, but had some correlation with the Swissy and the Cable was doing the same, but still had some correlation with the Swissy and Euro. I also noticed that the Cable moved up and down a couple of times by around 4 pips and I was close to entering one of my hopeful trades on the Cable’s next move back upwards. But then there was a sudden jerk down, the Cable dropped from around 1.6068 which was its lower end of the 4 pip up and down movement, by a further 4 or 5 pips. So I took my finger off the buzzer and waited. Watched the Cable start a new cycle of moving up and down by around 3 pips. But this only took place a couple of times. I then noticed more prominent correlation between all the currencies and jumped into a sell trade at 1.6054. I noticed after the fact that this trade lasted 1 minute 6 seconds – way too long. The trade cleared the spread quite quickly but then began to move back and forth between breakeven and -1 pip. However, there I sat waiting to exit the trade, instead of? That’s right, exiting the trade as soon as it stalled at breakeven or at the worse, when it went negative by -1 pip. I say to myself now, as I have done so numerous times in the past, would I have got out if it went negative by a further pip, -2, -3, -4 pips or worse!!!!!!!!!!!! The answer is obvious, the trade lasted 1 minute and 6 seconds, because I was waiting for the trade to go positive – and if it hadn’t and continued going negative, I don’t think I would have waited for the stop loss to take me out this time, but I’m quite sure the negative would have been bigger than -4 or -5 pips. Thankfully, and this is clearly luck again – the trade did go positive after that 1 minute and 6 seconds and I exited for a +1 pip trade today at 1.6053. On a positive note, at least I had the sense to get out then, rather than wait for a +2 which may or may not have happened – or worse, jumped back down to become a negative trade. I did notice after I exited however, that the Cable did continue its downward move by a couple more pips, which would have given me a bigger positive trade – but, I can honestly say – I did not care – as I said, I was more relieved that I was finished for the day on a positive trade and my trading session was 7 minutes.

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